Another week of football. As Shawna pointed out, the season's almost half over! That's horrible (not the least because my dissertation is due at the end of the season. AGH!). Anyway, another good slate of games, and some really fun moments in the night games.
Noon Games: Why the Hate?
One complaint about the season, so far: has anyone else noticed that the noon games have just been awful this year? I can't find anything to watch in that slot, which is why Shawna and I have been eating so much food from Ad Hoc At Home on Saturdays. I think part of this malaise has to do with the fact that the Big Ten is really just bad this season. There I said it. While Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State (and, I guess, Illinois now?) are clearly good teams, who cares? It's like watching WAC games or something: "I wonder if Boise State is going to beat this team I couldn't find on a map by 7 touchdowns?" There's an inevitability to Big Ten play in any given year, but this year it seems more soul-crushing than usual. Also, I guess it doesn't help that ESPN keeps moving marquee Big Ten games (ie. MSU vs. Michigan this weekend) to 3:30 or to 8. I demand good early afternoon football.
We All Live In Les Miles's World
I've given up fighting with my computer program: LSU got my vote as the best team in the land. Clearly Les Miles has sold his soul to Satan; who am I to argue with someone who has The Prince of Darkness on his side? As I posted on twitter after the Tennessee game: "if I have to be good or undeservedly lucky, I want to be LSU." I stand by that assertion.
I, for one, welcome our white baseball cap wearing overlords.
Life Lessons
Remember last week when I was going on and on about how I was worried that my computer program wasn't ranking Alabama #1? And then they lost to South Carolina? From here on out, I'm going against my computer only at my peril. This disjunction raises the question of how to vote in a poll like The Mumme Poll (or even how to vote in something like the AP Poll). Do you vote for the best teams at the moment or for teams that have the most potential? My program is an attempt (and probably not a great one) to figure out who is playing the best football at the moment in a world where things like lack of common opponents can't be controlled for. That's why my computer program's output often looks so strange: it doesn't care that Alabama played like a champion against Arkansas or that Denard Robinson got photographed running in the Heisman pose. It only cares about the numbers.
Moreover, I've been running results since the season started to watch them settle down, which was fun. My program, unlike a lot of the BCS computers, doesn't have an initial seed. The first week, every team is viewed as equally good as any other. A lot of the BCS computers use seeded rankings where the programmer ranks the teams initially. Some, like Sagarian are based on some kind of statistical model; others, like Billingsley are based on nothing at all. I very purposely didn't do this. I wanted to see what a completely statistical model of football performance would look like and what I get are the rankings I've been posting for the last few weeks.
Does it matter that I think Air Force is the best one loss team? Does it matter that I think Oregon is the best team in the country? Nope. The computer does not care about my pitiful emotions or my weak fleshy brain ... Have you noticed that this is kind of how real sports commentators talk about the BCS computers? Like they want something? It's hard not to.
Anyway.
I did change one thing based on emotions for my ballot this week. I moved Oregon ahead of Alabama and Arizona because I still feel like Oregon is a better team than Arizona. Although, that's going to be quite a game (ED Note: and now, after writing this post, I'm not so sure anymore). I did leave Oregon low in the rankings because I'm suspicious as to how their offense will hold up against real defenses (given their Rose Bowl beating last season).
So, the human has, once again, messed up the data of pure machines. Oh well.
Also, I've uploaded the output of my computer program, if you want to see the whole thing. If people are interested (if people are actually reading this?), I can explain what all the numbers are.
Mumme Poll Ballot
- LSU
- Oklahoma
- Auburn
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma State
- TCU
- Missouri
- Oregon
- Alabama
Computer Top 25
- Louisiana State 6-0 (493.083333333333)
- Oklahoma 5-0 (424.1)
- Auburn 6-0 (423.541666666667)
- Michigan State 6-0 (369.006439393939)
- Ohio State 6-0 (351.159090909091)
- Oklahoma State 5-0 (344.514393939394)
- Texas Christian 6-0 (343.233333333333)
- Missouri 5-0 (338.6625)
- Alabama 5-1 (337.32178030303)
- Arizona 4-1 (313.060643939394)
- Boise State 5-0 (308.887121212121)
- Nebraska 5-0 (307.763636363636)
- Oregon 6-0 (305.890151515152)
- Stanford 5-1 (300.248106060606)
- North Carolina State 5-1 (294.031060606061)
- South Carolina 4-1 (290.641666666667)
- Virginia Tech 4-2 (287.409090909091)
- Nevada 6-0 (279.571212121212)
- Arkansas 4-1 (276.190909090909)
- Michigan 5-1 (257.484848484848)
- Florida 4-2 (255.004545454545)
- Oregon State 3-2 (253.133608815427)
- Florida State 5-1 (251.546590909091)
- Utah 5-0 (250.572727272727)
- Northwestern 5-1 (242.709090909091)