Finally, a truly satisfying week of football! Appropriate, given that Mumme Poll voting started up again this week.
On Saturday, while I was rooting for Stanford, I think football won in Eugene: that was the kind of game I like to watch. Additionally, Air Force beat Navy for the first time in 7 years and did so in classic fashion. I wish Air Force had held on against Oklahoma, because I think they (and not TCU or Utah) are the team to beat in the MWC. We'll see.
Anyway, my Mumme Poll Ballot has some strangeness but not as strange as the Top 25 my computer program produced.
Why Is LSU #2?!?!
Yeah, yeah, I know: I've watched all their games, too. I don't rightly know why my computer program likes LSU so much. For what it's worth, before this week, it had been ranking them #1. In fact, the top two in my computer poll are both strange. "Isn't that the Oklahoma team that almost lost at home to Utah State?" (yes). In both cases, it has to do with the teams they are playing. My program ranks teams according to quality (determined mostly by points scored and points allowed) and then uses this to calculate a score of how successful they've been against quality competition. The more "good" teams you play, the better my computer program likes you. LSU, who only has the 25th best quality, has played (and beaten) the 35th (UNC), 36th (WVU), and 45th (Mississippi State) best teams according to quality. They have played no FCS teams. They haven't even really played any scrubs (Vanderbilt is 87th in quality and Tennessee is 75th). At this stage in the season, even with how badly they've played, LSU has a tough schedule and has performed well against it (in terms of wins and points allowed; their defense is the 4th best according to my program).
Comparatively, Oregon, who my computer hates, started out with a quality of 2nd best (13th best defense; 2nd best offense), but they've only played one good team: Stanford (23rd). At the same time, they've played FCS Portland State (which has a quality rank of 120 for calculation purposes), New Mexico (119th), Tennessee (75th), and Arizona State (76th). So, while Oregon has looked impressive, they haven't proved it against good competition yet.
As LSU plays it's schedule and gets to FCS McNeese State, Louisiana-Monroe (116th), and Ole Miss (73), I imagine it will start to drop a little (especially when they lose to Auburn and 'Bama). If they get through all of that undefeated, I would expect them to stay in the Top 5 (maybe even #1).
I think LSU's rank is an interesting thought experiment. If you take emotion out of it and purely crunch the numbers, LSU has played the best schedule so far this season, had the most success, and, therefore, deserves to be ranked that high.
Of course, anyone who saw this couldn't possibly agree with LSU even being in any Top 25:
As I said to my parents and Shawna yesterday: the end of that game shows you how much gross incompetence there is in football coaching, even at the highest level.
The Jay Paterno Memorial Rankings
Jay Paterno once suggested that athlete graduation rates should factor into the BCS rankings. While I don't have a say in that (yet), here's what my computer's top 10 looks like if you factor in NCAA statistics on graduation rates:
- Alabama 5-0 (384.772727272727)
- Louisiana State 5-0 (371.572727272727)
- Texas Christian 5-0 (368.842424242424)
- Auburn 5-0 (361.595454545455)
- Ohio State 5-0 (350.864772727273)
- Oklahoma 5-0 (348.958333333333)
- Arizona 4-0 (344.55)
- Missouri 4-0 (331.904166666667)
- Michigan 5-0 (324.240909090909)
- Oklahoma State 4-0 (322.7375)
Pretty crazy, huh? It really hurts Oklahoma (dropping them 6 spots). I think the most interesting thing is how this bumps up SEC schools in the ranks, when they are supposed to be so bad about academics. I should point out, though, that these rankings only count graduation rate half as much as other factors. When I set it to equal weight, you get an even crazier top 10:
- Texas Christian 5-0 (388.39053030303)
- Alabama 5-0 (378.99696969697)
- Ohio State 5-0 (373.121590909091)
- Auburn 5-0 (373.120454545455)
- Michigan 5-0 (370.493181818182)
- Missouri 4-0 (346.6)
- Northwestern 5-0 (333.640909090909)
- Oklahoma State 4-0 (325.1)
- Louisiana State 5-0 (317.009090909091)
- Florida 4-1 (312.981818181818)
Then you really start to see how important academics are at Big Ten schools. More and more of them appear in the top 10 as you increase the value of graduation rate.
Perhaps that's why Jay Paterno made his suggestion?
Having suggested a hidden agenda, though, I do think it would be interesting if the BCS considered graduation rate (or some kind of academic component, as graduation rate really hurts Georgia Tech because of our status as a "real" school) in calculating standings, as that would at least in some way force teams to pay attention to the "college" part of college football.
See you next week!
Human Top 10
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Arizona
- Auburn
- TCU
- Ohio State
- Oklahoma
- Michigan State
- Boise State
- LSU
Computer Top 25
- Oklahoma 5-0 (396.758333333333)
- Louisiana State 5-0 (395.214393939394)
- Alabama 5-0 (379.545454545455)
- Arizona 4-0 (370.677651515152)
- Auburn 5-0 (359.326136363636)
- Texas Christian 5-0 (352.188636363636)
- Florida 4-1 (331.786363636364)
- Ohio State 5-0 (331.640151515152)
- Oklahoma State 4-0 (327.366666666667)
- Missouri 4-0 (321.833333333333)
- Oregon 5-0 (306.792424242424)
- Michigan State 5-0 (301.3125)
- Michigan 5-0 (288.47196969697)
- Boise State 4-0 (284.077651515152)
- Nebraska 4-0 (283.026136363636)
- Northwestern 5-0 (278.309848484848)
- Nevada 5-0 (272.920454545455)
- Stanford 4-1 (256.763257575758)
- Southern California 4-1 (255.788636363636)
- South Carolina 3-1 (243.458333333333)
- Virginia Tech 3-2 (242.605681818182)
- North Carolina State 4-1 (239.284090909091)
- Miami (Florida) 3-1 (232.073863636364)
- Iowa 4-1 (227.433333333333)
- Utah 4-0 (220.159090909091)